An analytical and quantitative study of economic shocks between the variables of Kaldor Magic Square in agricultural sector in Iraq for the period (2004-2021)

Abstract

This manuscript systematically investigates the use of different methods of the magic square (MS) as an indicator of well-being, which is a formal system of relationships necessary to deal with conflicting social and economic goals. An application of the new concept is presented using economic data on the Iraqi agricultural sector. The study also aimed to know the nature of the relationship between variables such as the role of the agricultural sector, represented by the growth rate of agricultural domestic product, the unemployment rate, the inflation rate, and growth rate of the agricultural trade balance in Iraq, using time series data represented by the period (2004-2021). The study used modern descriptive and quantitative methods represented by the autoregressive model. (VAR) and analysis of response functions and analysis of variance, after conducting the time series stability test using the extended Dickie-Fowler test. Study variables using the effect test and the maximum value test, and from here the autoregressive model was adopted to study the relationship between the Kaldor variables. Square variables like the role is far from ideal, because the Iraqi economy is a rentier economy, that is, it depends on the oil sector and neglects other sectors such as agriculture and industry. The manuscript recommends encouraging local agricultural companies to invest money in national food security projects, such as food industries, or the production of agricultural production inputs of good quality Providing them with facilities, developing an atmosphere of constructive competition between them, and removing technical obstacles that appear in their work.