A Sensitivity Analysis of the PSITPS Epidemic Model’s Parameters for COVID-19

Alaa Falih Mahdi; Hussein K. Asker

doi:10.31642/JoKMC/2018/110210

Authors

Alaa Falih Mahdi University of Kufa
Hussein K. Asker University of Kufa https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9845-9124

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.31642/JoKMC/2018/110210

Keywords:

PSITPS Model, COVID-19 Epidemic, The Basic Reproduction Number, Sensitivity Analysis, Numerical Analysis

Abstract

Given the prevailing circumstances surrounding the transmission of COVID-19, which has been classified as a worldwide epidemic by the World Health Organization, a sensitivity analysis was performed on the Protected-Susceptible-Infected-Treated- Protected- Susceptible ( ) epidemic model. The objective of this analysis was to identify the specific parameters associated with the basic reproduction number that contribute to the propagation of the COVID-19 epidemic in Najaf. The findings indicate that the sensitivity index of parameters exhibiting a positive sign is positively correlated with the extent of the epidemic's spread in Najaf. Conversely, parameters displaying a negative sign are inversely correlated with the spread of the epidemic. The analysis was conducted numerically using MATLAB to confirm the results of the study.

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