Foresight in the theories of international relations - a critical analytical review of the theoretical foundations

Abstract

There are many theories that have tried to explain the foundations and principles of international relations, and the nature of the dynamics that control and influence the paths and transformations of these relations. One that contains it, and reveals at the same time the constant and variable character in relations between states, and therefore it has become obligatory for every theory that tries to be effective and influential in the field of international relations to collect, in a dialectical manner at the level of approach and vision have four basic units within them: description, analysis, interpretation, and forecasting.

This research attempts, through a critical analytical perspective, to stop at dealing with foresight or prediction, since it constitutes a basic unit within the system of structure of theories of international relations, by studying its determinants, effectiveness and impact, and the procedural nature of its use as a mechanism of political analysis. This means that the research will be accused of monitoring How to work theoretically with foresight or prediction as a research practice that operates within the limits of assumptions and expectations, and in the short, medium and long-term ranges of time, in addition to trying to discover any of the theories of international relations, whether they are idealistic theories, or realistic theories, or liberal, constructive, or normative theories. .. Etc., it has the ability or the ability to foresee to be part of its structural characteristics and features, and therefore Thus, it is a mainstay in its explanatory perspective of the foundations and principles on which international relations are based.

In terms of treatment, the research moved on two levels, the first: shedding light on the most important effective and influential theories of international relations, which through their arguments have proven their presence in the international arena, and the second level: stopping at foresight or forecasting as a research practice within the circle of political theorizing, and defining its characteristics and constituents , and the mechanisms and methods of its operation within the circle of theories of international relations, and most importantly, an attempt to reveal its procedural validity within the boundaries of those theories, and also stop at the most important criticisms directed at those working in the department of foresight or prediction, or what is known as the "field of future studies".