Urban Expansion Trends and Spatial Change of Land Use in the City of Kufa for the Period (2013–2033)

Abstract

This research analyzes urban growth trends and land use changes in Al-Kufa city during the period 2013-2023, with future projections until 2033. The study employed spatial analysis using GIS-RS technologies, statistical data, field surveys, and questionnaires. Results revealed a significant transformation in the city's urban growth pattern, characterized by the expansion of urban land uses from 1,253.14 hectares (38.24%) in 2013 to 1,831.26 hectares (55.46%) in 2023, while agricultural areas declined from 2,023.97 hectares (61.8%) to 1,470.98 hectares (44.6%). Spatial analysis revealed a bi-axial expansion pattern toward the northwest and eastern directions. The application of international land-use efficiency indicators (LCRPGR) following Estoque et al. (2021) methodology showed a value of 1.78, indicating that urban expansion exceeds population growth by 78%, placing Al-Kufa among cities with low land-use efficiency compared to the global optimal rate of 1.02. Future projections indicate continued population growth , reaching 240,105 inhabitants by 2033, with an expected increase in utilized area for various land uses to 2,692.53 hectares (53.9%) of the city's total area. Spatial suitability analysis identified 2,293 hectares (46%) as suitable for future development. Based on SWOT analysis, the research proposed strategies for achieving sustainable urban development. directing urban growth toward spatially suitable areas, achieving balance in land uses, developing infrastructure, and preserving the city's historical and cultural identity while aligning with international sustainable development goals.