Future expectations of the change in surface water flow of Shatt al-Abbasiya water in the Najaf

Abstract

The research dealt with surface runoff changes in the waters of the Shatt al-Abbasiyah, which is a branch of the Euphrates River within the city of Najaf.

 Through it, the hydrological changes that affected the increase and decrease in current discharge rates as a result of the change that the Euphrates River witnessed within the study area were investigated through a large group. Of the natural and human factors that affected the activity of the river course, these factors were represented by the geological structure of the study area, as its location is within the alluvial plain area, which was tectonically classified within the unstable shelf area, as it is covered by sediments from the Quaternary period, which included modern deposits with a thickness not exceeding (100 m). (4 m) above sea level, which made the region’s sediments penetrate long distances in a way that increased the amounts of river sediments. In terms of climatic characteristics, the region was characterized by a dry desert climate, which was reflected in the rates of water drainage and natural vegetation, which is one of the most important factors that It has a major impact on the geomorphic activity in the waters of the Shatt al-Abbasiya, while human characteristics, represented by agricultural activity and other industrial uses, had a major impact on changing the main course of the river. In this study, we also discussed river branches and their changes, and then the variation in the amount of water imports during the period (1993-2022) and their relationship to the extent of hydrological change in quantitative surface

runoff. We used a number of statistical programs in this, especially Microsoft Excel (and Minitab 2016) by determining the general trend of drainage rates. Shatt al-Abbasiya water, which led us to build future expectations according to the change that appeared to us through statistical transactions, which indicates a decrease during the period (2023-2037) at different rates, as the year 2023 recorded the future expectation for the discharge rate at about (52.20 m3/s). ) to record its highest expectation, then it decreased after that to record in the year 2026 by about (42.94 m3/s), and it continued to decrease to record in the year 2030 an expectation of about (30.27 m3/s), while the expectation for the year 2033 was recorded by about (20.88 m3/s) after that. The expectation decreased to be recorded in the year 2036 by about (11.48 m3/s), while in the year 2037 the lowest expectation rates were recorded during the period studied by about (8.34 m3/s) for each of them, respectively.