Measuring and analyzing the relationship between development and operational policies and the phenomenon of poverty in Iraq

Abstract

The basic content of the research is to know the nature of the relationship between development policy and employment policy and the phenomenon of poverty، as well as measuring and analyzing the relationship at the level of the Iraqi economy between macroeconomic policies (development and operational) and poverty for the period (1990 - 2020) using the (ARDL) model، and according to The results and conclusions of the research، there was a long-term equilibrium relationship between macroeconomic policies (development and operational)، and the phenomenon of poverty in Iraq، and within the framework of this relationship، it was concluded that the development policy is less effective than the operational policy in influencing poverty rates in Iraq as a result of the flexibility rates Unemployment is higher than the average per capita GDP elasticity in Iraq; Increasing the average per capita GDP by a certain percentage will lead to a decrease in poverty rates by about (11%) of that percentage، and this is due to the rentier nature of the Iraqi economy، as the oil sector represents about a third of the gross domestic product at the most (more than About half of the GDP (when oil prices rise) and this sector (oil) is capital-intensive with little work with low marginal substitution flexibility between labor and capital، which means the inability of the oil sector to absorb the large workforce resulting from relatively high population growth rates، And then the decrease in the ability of the oil sector to generate income for the largest number of individuals، and this matter also explains the reason for the low flexibility of unemployment towards poverty rates and the limited impact of its reduction on poverty rates in Iraq، as reducing unemployment rates by a certain percentage will lead to a reduction in poverty rates in Iraq by (19%). ) of that percentage; Due to the implementation of most infrastructure projects by foreign companies with some Iraqi workforce، and this makes the impact of the operational policy relatively limited.