Analyzing the impact of mobile banking services on achieving economic sustainability: A study of the Iraqi banking sector for the period (2017–2023)

Abstract

 This study aimed to analyze the impact of mobile banking services on achieving economic sustainability in the Iraqi banking sector, focusing on the deposit growth rate as a vital indicator reflecting customer confidence and banks' ability to attract financing. The study relied on monthly, quarterly, and annual data published by the Central Bank of Iraq for the period 2017 to 2023, which were converted into a homogeneous time series to ensure the accuracy of the results.

The study employed an advanced analytical methodology based on artificial intelligence techniques, specifically vector basis function (RBF) networks, which enable the highly accurate modeling of nonlinear relationships between variables. A predictive model was built to measure the impact of the mobile banking services variable (X1) on the deposit growth rate (Y1).

The results revealed a strong positive relationship between mobile banking services and deposit growth, with a coefficient of determination (R²) of 0.93, indicating the model's ability to explain 93% of the variation in the deposit growth rate. The analysis also showed that the (X1) indicator witnessed exceptional growth, particularly in 2023, with the annual average rising to 7.45% compared to 0.63% in 2017. This reflects a radical shift in Iraqi user behavior towards reliance on digital channels.

On the other hand, the study highlighted potential negative impacts in specific contexts, reflecting imbalances between cash liquidity and electronic transactions. It also pointed to challenges associated with the dominance of a single company in the mobile payment market (Zain Cash), which could affect competition and increase the financial system's vulnerability to external shocks.

In light of these findings, the study recommended strengthening the regulatory and technological infrastructure for mobile banking services, encouraging fair competition among service providers, adopting the RBF model as a reliable analytical tool for forecasting deposit growth rates, increasing banking awareness among users, and conducting further studies to analyze the mediating factors affecting this relationship.