The impact of early warning indicators of the banking system on the gross domestic product in Iraq using the ARDL model

Abstract

Iraq is one of the countries whose banking system is often exposed to certain disturbances due to the weakness of the monetary mechanisms used in managing these crises or the weak performance of that device in activating early warning indicators on the impact on the gross domestic product. For this reason, the research aims to analyze the development of these indicators and their quantitative relationship in the output The gross domestic product for the period (2006 - 2020), using the Autoregressive Distributed Time Gaps (ARDL) model, and the research reached a set of conclusions, the most important of which was the weak impact of early warning indicators on the gross domestic product, which indicates the weak effectiveness of the Iraqi banking system despite From the high ratios of capital adequacy and the quality of assets, which is not commensurate with the requirements of the current stage